X-Stock | GDA VND18,100 +17%: Internal Resilience

BSC’S QUICK ASSESSMENT OF GDA’S 2025 BUSINESS RESULTS

For 2025, GDA’s revenue and net profit fulfilled 97% and 89% of BSC’s forecasts, respectively. Net profit reached only 89% of our forecast, mainly due to much lower-than-expected export sales volume in 4Q2025. Based on our discussions with GDA and HSG, we believe this was mainly attributable to the following factors:

• Escalating geopolitical tensions have made it increasingly difficult to export coated steel through third countries into major markets such as the US and EU, contrary to companies’ initial expectations. In addition, changes in tax policies related to CBAM affected year-end restocking demand in the EU market. As of end-January 2026, the EU had yet to announce the carbon credit price, which serves as the basis for calculating import taxes into the EU. Therefore, BSC believes exports could remain weak in 1Q2026 before orders recover on seasonal factors.
• Global construction investment demand remains generally weak. Based on our discussions with several companies in the sector, demand in the EU and US markets remains subdued. Current demand is mainly concentrated in India and the Asia-Pacific region.

VALUATION VIEW UPDATE

BSC recommends BUY on GDA, with a 2026 fair value of VND18,100/share, implying 17% upside versus the closing price on 23 February 2025. Our target P/B is 0.65x. Although the business outlook remains challenging, the 17% upside mainly reflects the stock’s deep valuation discount, with 2026F P/B currently at 0.56x. Compared with our previous report, BSC lowers its target price to reflect GDA’s more challenging outlook in 2026.