X-Alpha | PVD 34,600 +27%: Establishing a new growth ground

VALUATION PERSPECTIVE

We maintain our BUY recommendation for PVD shares, while raising our 2025F target price to VND 34,600/share (compared to VND 27,350/share in our most recent report), representing an upside of +27% compared to the closing price on December 26, 2025.

The target price is determined using a combined EV/EBITDA and DCF method with a 50%/50% weighting.

BUSINESS RESULTS PROJECTION

• 2025: Projected revenue and net profit after tax (NPAT) are VND 9,869 billion (+6% YoY) and VND 978 billion (+58% YoY), respectively, with EPS of VND 1,643/share. The main driver of profit will come from the Well Engineering segment with revenue increasing by +41% YoY.
• 2026: Forecasted Net revenue and Profit after tax-NCI are VND 11,781 billion (+19% YoY) and VND 1,170 billion (+20% YoY) respectively, corresponding to a 2026 forward P/E ratio of 13.9x. This outlook is reinforced by the following assumptions: (i) Improved daily charter rates of +6% YoY along with new contributions from the PVD VIII & IX rigs and (ii) The Well Engineering segment maintaining its growth momentum of +11% YoY from the high base of 2025.

BUSINESS UPDATE

Business Results Update: Q3/2025 Results: Net revenue = VND 2,571 billion (+5% YoY, +6% QoQ), Profit after tax - NCI = VND 278 billion (+53% YoY, +16% QoQ). Q3/2025 results exceeded BSC's forecast, mainly due to the drilling engineering and services segment exceeding projections.

Investment perspective update (Refer to the latest report)

• Well Engineering Segment: Service demand from the Block B – O Mon project (estimated 40–50 wells/year) provides a stable work base. We forecast revenue in the 2026–2027 period to increase by +85% compared to the base level of the 2022–2024 period;
• Drilling Services Segment: Expect to receive full contribution from new owned rigs (PVD VIII & IX). Combined with the assumption of stable and high charter rates and operating performance, projected revenue from the Jack-up drilling segment alone will increase by +41% in 2026.

RISKS

(1) Fluctuations in oil prices have affected rig rental rates and PVD's profits.

(2) Exchange rate risk and foreign customers' payment capacity.