X-Point | PVD 20,700 +10%: Corporate Access 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Q2–Q3/2026 earnings are pressured by the Song Doc well-abandonment project running through Sep-2026, Rig X crew-up costs, and a new interest-expense accounting rule – mostly timing-related. Outlook: (1) Recovery from Q4/2026, once Song Doc ends and the rig starts a new Malaysia contract. (2) Medium term: dayrates around USD90,000/day, fleet growth via Rig X–IX, and the Block B/Ca Voi Xanh E&P cycle underpin 2027–2030 growth.

BSC VIEW

•Near term: Q3/2026 remains pressured by the Song Doc project, crew-up costs for Rig X, and interest expense under the new accounting treatment. Most of this is timing-related.

•Recovery point: From Q4/2026, once Song Doc is complete and the rig moves onto a new contract in Malaysia, fleet utilization and margins are expected to improve.

•Medium to long term: Dayrates stabilizing around USD90,000/day, the fleet expanding with Rig IX–X, and the domestic E&P cycle from Block B and Ca Voi Xanh remain the growth foundation for 2027–2030. Should Middle East activity recover and draw rig supply back out of Asia, regional dayrates should follow suit.

•Catalysts to watch: (1) progress completing Song Doc; (2) outcome of 2027 contract renewals; (3) dayrate and rig-supply trends in Asia; (4) interest expense during the new fleet investment phase.