Macro&Market Nov 2018__ Strugling Market, 2019 Calculation_20181205

Macroeconomics
• The PMI rebounded to 56.5, up from 53.5 in the previous month, and was higher s than the yearly average of 53.6 point (52.6 points average in 2017).
• Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in November were estimated at VND 385 trillion, up 1.1% over the previous month and up 12.2% over the same period last year.
• FDI in the first 11 months decreased by 20.3% over the same period of last year but the implemented capital increased by 3.1% yoy. The manufacturing and real estate industries are the two leading players in attracting FDI.
• The interbank exchange rate fluctuated between 23,353 - 23,379 VND/USD, increasing by 23,344 - 23,356 VND/USD in October. The interbank interest rate in all terms increased in the last half of the month. 11, especially medium and long term interest rates.

Stock Market
• The HSX slightly rebounded while the HNX continued to maintain its downward momentum. VN-Index increased 11.8 points compared to the previous month (+ 1.29% MoM) and HNX-Index decreased 0.53 points (-0.5% MoM).
• The average liquidity on both exchanges decreased 31.05% compared to October 2018, and decreased to VND 4.057 billion per session and equivalent to nearly USD 174.1 million per session.
• In November, foreigners were net buyers on the HSX VND 1412.68 billion, net selling VND -279 billion on the HNX. Since the beginning of the year, they net bought VND 40.96 trillion on the HSX and net sold VND 1.09 bil on the HNX.
• The P/E of VN-Index recovered to 16.21 points, + 1.30% MoM, -11.47% YTD and P/E of HNX-Index fell to 9.07 points, -0.78% MoM and -27.47% Ytd respectively. Compared to October, the P / E of the VN-Index rose to the 7th position and the HNX-Index stayed at 18th position in Asia.

Market outlook next month
The initial agreement between the US and China has hammered the escalation of the USChina trade war and will have a positive impact on the world market in general and Vietnam in particular. The market has gradually stabilized and has a chance to rise back to the expected range of 975-1,000 points at the end of 2018. In December, BSC provided two scenarios for the market as follows.
• In the positive case, VN-Index will increase and reach the expectation range of 975-1,000 points with the rotation of major stocks. Liquidity remained moderate; sector movements appeared but not clear.
• In the negative case, the negative news from the world and the retreat of foreign capital will keep VN-Index at the low price range of around 900 points.

Recommended Stocks:
• Sectors and stock valuations that we consider important – 2018 Sector Outlook and Viet Nam Sector Outlook 4Q2018;
• Banking stocks - highly-improved business results, Petroleum stocks benefiting from oil price and other stocks benefiting from trade agreements and trade shift from trade war;
• Real estate stocks from revenue and profit cycle;
• Highly-defensive stocks such as Electricity, Information and Technology, Consumer and Retail have high growth and dividend;
• In the long term, BSC's recommended stocks will be listed in the sectoral strategic reports in the fourth quarter (Link), the stocks with good performance are recommended in the investment consultant weekly report and Sector update/ Corporate update.