BSC_Vietnam Marco Market Outlook_EN_2022_20220207

Regarding the macroeconomics in 2022, BSC forecasts GDP growth under 2 scenarios of 6.0% and 6.6% for 2022, and 6.7% and 7.0% for 2023. CPI is a factor that needs further monitoring, however, we still forecast this index will stay at 4.5% and 3.0% in 2022 and 4.0% and 3.2% respectively in 2023. Interest rates in the 2 scenarios of 2022 are kept at 5.5% and 5.2%, then gradually increase to 5.8% and 5.5% in 2023. The exchange rate will be stable from 23,100 to 23,300 in the next 2 years.

Regarding the market in 2022, VN-Index will continue to increase, although the divergence will be larger because (1) business results of companies have improve; (2) P/E ratio has increased thanks to new cash flow of investors; and (3) Small and medium-sized stocks have had high valuations, making it difficult to maintain the upward momentum like in 2021.

 · Scenario 1: VN-Index is forecasted to increase by 9% to 1,633 points; EPS is forecasted to increase by 13%, P/E 17x.

· Scenario 2: VN-Index is forecasted to increase by 19% to 1,782 points; EPS is forecasted to increase by 16.5%, P/E 18x.

Regarding stocks to invest in the stock market in 2022,

·       Opening the economy: Banking (VCB, TCB, CTG, VPB), Consumer and Retail (MWG, PNJ, VNM), Oil and Gas and utilities (GAS, POW, PLX, PVT, REE), Others (VHC, MSH, DGC);

·       Benefit from the stimulus package: Materials (HPG, HT1, PLC), Construction (LCG, PC1), Aviation and transportation (ACV, VTP); Real Estate (VHM, NVL, NLG, DXG, KDH, VRE), Industrial Parks (PHR, GVR, IDC, SC), Ports (GMD);

·        State divestment: BMI, SAB, FPT, NTP, BVH, SJG, VGT;

·        Large stocks when foreign cash flow returns: VNM, VHM, HPG, VCB, VRE, PLX.

For the prospects of industries and stocks in 2022, see details in "Vietnam Sector Outlook 2022 Report".