VALUATION
BSC recommends BUY KBC stock with a target price of 74,900 VND/share (upside
30.5% compared to the closing price on March 1, 2022 of 57,500 VND/share) using RNAV method.
FORECASTING BUSINESS RESULTS
- Based on a cautious view, BSC develops two scenarios to assess the impact of the wholesale deployment of Trang Cat urban area on KBC's 2022 business results:
- Scenario 1 - Successfully wholesale 50 hectares of Trang Cat urban area in 2022: Revenue and EAT in 2022 are VND 15.719 billion (+265% YoY) and VND 5,576 billion, respectively (+484% YoY), EPS FW 2022 = 9,019 VND/CP, PE FW 2022 = 6.4x, P/B FW 2022 = 1.41x.
- Scenario 2 – It is not possible to wholesale 50 hectares of Trang Cat urban area in 2022: Revenue and NPAT in 2022 are VND 7,719 billion, respectively (+79% YoY) and 2,282 billion VND (+139% YoY), EPS FW 2022 = 3,298 VND/CP, PE FW 2022 = 17.4x, P/B FW 2022 = 1.7x.
INVESMENT THESIS
- Business results will continue to grow strongly in 2022-2023 thanks to (1) high rental rates thanks to the positive outlook of the industrial zone real estate industry, (2) continuous expansion of land bank in different locations. Favorable position ensures continued growth.
- Expected to "unlock" Trang Due 3 Industrial Park and Trang Cat Urban Area in 2022.
RISKS
New projects are slow to approve/deploy.
High cost of clearing land in new projects will affect profit margin.
BUSINESS UPDATE
- Business results in 2021 recorded outstanding growth of the Company despite not achieving the plan set by the Board of Directors due to the Covid-19 epidemic affecting the rental rate of the Industrial Park. Revenue and PAT in 2021 will reach VND 4,309 billion (+100% YoY – completing 74.6% of the plan) and VND 955 billion (+199% YoY – completing 47.7% of the plan).
- In 2021, KBC has leased 113.8 hectares of industrial land including: Quang Chau (56.6 hectares), Nam Son Hap Linh (33.8 hectares), Tan Phu Trung (22 hectares) and recorded the handover of 4.4 hectares of Trang Due urban area.
- At the 2022 Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders, KBC approved the plan to pay dividends in shares and offer individual shares to increase charter capital and attract investment capital in key projects such as Trang Cat Urban Area, Trang Due Industrial Park, Industrial clusters in Hung Yen and Long An.