X-Stock _ ANV 39,700 +48% Q4 2025 Results Were In Line with Expectations

INVESTMENT THESIS

1. BSC maintains the view stated in our previous reports that, in 2026, ANV will continue to record 18% YoY earnings growth, supported by: (1) improved pangasius sales volume as ANV continues to accelerate exports to the U.S. and Latin American markets; and (2) tilapia, which carries a higher margin than pangasius, continuing to strengthen the company’s growth momentum. Investors may refer to BSC’s report for further details.

2. ANV is trading at a 2026 forward P/E of 6.1x, which is very low compared with: (1) its five-year average of 10.0x and the average of 12.0x during the previous pangasius upcycle in 2020–2022, when earnings recorded a CAGR of 49%. BSC notes that, in the current 2024–2026 cycle, ANV has delivered strong growth in both revenue scale and earnings, with a CAGR of 131% per year, driven by market diversification toward high-priced markets and the new tilapia segment; and (2) the new tilapia segment, where ANV has only captured a small portion of the total U.S. market size, providing significant room for the company to sustain growth in the following years.

EARNINGS UPDATE

Q4/2025 results: Net revenue reached VND2,119bn (+56% YoY), while NPAT-MI reached VND252bn, 50x higher than the same period last year.

1. Net revenue increased by 56% YoY, supported by:

Export volume reached 22.44 thousand tonnes (+48% YoY), while the average export price reached USD1.96 thousand/tonne (+7% YoY), thanks to export market diversification toward high-priced markets such as the U.S., Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, replacing and offsetting ANV’s traditional markets such as China, Malaysia, and Thailand,...

Tilapia volume reached 2.755 thousand tonnes, compared with an insignificant export volume in the same period last year, and increased by 18% QoQ, supported by: (1) ANV taking advantage of the period when China was subject to high tariffs to penetrate the U.S. market; and (2) ANV executing its tilapia supply contract signed with Brazil’s food company JBS at the expanded BRICS Summit in July 2025.

Domestic revenue from pangasius, by-products, and other products reached VND516bn (+52% YoY), mainly supported by the low base in 2024 and improved sales through Bach Hoa Xanh channels.

2. NPAT-MI increased 10x YoY, supported by:

Gross margin reached 20%, improving by 10 ppts YoY, thanks to: (1) a 7% YoY improvement in average export prices; (2) contribution from the tilapia segment, which has a higher margin than pangasius; and (3) improvement in the domestic consumption market.

SG&A/net revenue stood at 6%, down 2 ppts YoY, thanks to effective management of commission and transportation expenses.

Overall, for full-year 2025, ANV recorded net revenue and NPAT-MI of VND6,992bn (+49% YoY) and VND999bn, 20x higher than the same period last year, respectively. The results were in line with BSC’s latest view and forecasts, completing 103% and 96% of our revenue and earnings forecasts, respectively, with strong growth driven by pangasius exports to high-priced markets and the new tilapia segment.