X-Stock | MSN 98,900 +45%: DEEPLY DISCOUNTED VALUATION

VALUATION

BSC reiterates its STRONG BUY recommendation on MSN with a 12-month target price of VND 98,900/share, implying 45% upside from the 8 Sep 2026 closing price, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The target price is revised by 1.5% from the previous target, as the higher valuation of MSR on stronger operating results partly offsets a higher holding-company discount amid persistently elevated interest rates (link).

INVESTMENT THESIS

I. Entering a phase of earnings realization at the parent-company level

NPAT-MI grew 106% YoY in 2025 and is expected to increase +143% YoY / +24% YoY in 2026/2027, respectively.

• Consumer businesses continue to gain market share by capturing the shift toward modern and transparent retail channels while continuously improving operations, supporting steady profit growth of +15% YoY / +23% YoY.
• Minerals (MSR) is emerging as a new earnings growth engine, with its contribution to group PBT expected to rise from 1% in 2025 to over 40% in 2026–2027, driven by sharply higher selling prices and operating optimization following restructuring.

BSC also expects Masan to cover most of its financial obligations to investors in 2027, supported by improving core operating cash flow and flexible parent-company funding options. (link)

II. Forward P/E at 8.4–10.4x implies an attractive entry point.

MSN is trading at a deep discount versus its five-year average of above 32x. Notably, the current valuation reflects only around 70% of the market value of its existing businesses based on ownership stakes (MCH + MSR), net of net debt. Re-rating potential remains in the medium term as MSN demonstrates sustainable profitability and increases value attributable to parent shareholders through cash dividends, share buybacks and other capital-return measures.

CATALYST: (i) Improving MSR operating efficiency and cash flow, supporting settlement of PE investor obligations in 2026–2027; ii) Deleveraging, a simpler operating structure, and continued improvement in business efficiency.; (iii) Potential foreign fund inflows following Vietnam’s stock-market upgrade.

7M/2026 Highlights Information (details on page 2):

• MSN’s BOD proposes raising the plan in line with positive business results for the first half of 2026 (achieving 53% to 79.6% of the original targets).

Net revenue for the first seven months of 2026 reached 61–65% of the proposed revenue target, while the peak business season falls in the second half of the year.

RISKS: (i) Weaker consumer demand and higher interest expense amid elevated rates, as well as tungsten-price volatility; (ii) Financial obligations to PE investors in 2026–2027