X-Stock | VPB 31,800 +43%: Business update and Strategy for 2027

3Q2026 BUSINESS RESULTS UPDATE​

Consolidated PBT in 3Q2026 reached VND11.0tn (+0.7% QoQ, +20% YoY); 9M2026 PBT reached VND29.9tn (+47% YoY), fulfilling 76% of BSC's full-year 2026 forecast. Results were driven by (i) consolidated credit growth of 28% YTD, lifting net interest income to VND18.2tn (+21% YoY), and (ii) provision expenses falling 4.6% YoY. In contrast, non-interest income fell 23% YoY due to swap costs on international borrowings. 9M2026 PBT by entity:​

• Parent bank reached VND25.2tn (+48% YoY); 3Q alone is estimated at VND9.6tn.​

• VPX reached VND3.5tn (+7.9% YoY), with investment banking revenue up 73% YoY.​

• FECredit reached VND311bn, with loans +12% YTD; the company continues to prioritize portfolio quality.​

INVESTMENT VIEW​

VPB's 3Q2026 results were positive and in line with BSC's forecast, but two points need attention:​

• NIM narrowed in 3Q. Management expects separate NIM to stabilize around 4.4% from 4Q2026 (similar to 3Q2026); full-year NIM may decline slightly by 0.2pp vs. 2025.​

• Group 2 loans rose to 3.56% (+0.40pp QoQ), and the NPL coverage ratio fell to 54%.​

Consolidated CAR reached 13.84%. VPB is running a 5% private placement and negotiating with a foreign investor, per the AGM-approved roadmap. Circular 50 lets equity count toward the LDR, giving VPB more room to grow.​

2026F–2027F PBT forecasts are maintained at VND39,246bn (+28% YoY) and VND49,020bn (+25% YoY).​

BSC maintains a BUY recommendation on VPB with a 2026 target price of VND31,800/share (upside +43% vs. 11/11/2026). 2026F forward P/B is 1.06x, a 20% discount to the 5-year average.​