Forecast of the number of shares to be bought/sold by domestic ETFs in Q3/2025

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
U.S. stocks approach record highs as tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions temporarily ease
The Nasdaq index reached a new all-time high, and the S&P 500 approached its previous peak after the White House spokesperson downplayed the significance of the upcoming July 8 tariff deadline. A drop in U.S. initial jobless claims signaled continued labor market stability, while strong corporate earnings growth and a resurgence in AI trading activity are fueling equity gains—despite a backdrop of mixed macro headlines.
- U.S. equity indices rose an average of +3.5%, EU600 +1.1%, Nikkei 225 +4.6%, and CSI 300 +2.0%.
- The commodity index declined -4.5%, largely driven by a drop in raw materials as Middle East tensions cooled: oil -11.2%, natural gas -9.9%, gold -2.5%. Conversely, other metals rose by an average of +2%.
- The DXY dollar index fell -1.6% to 97, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased 0.1% to 4.27%.
The U.S. announced it had reached a framework trade agreement with China after President Trump claimed he signed a deal on June 25, although no specifics were provided. Prior to that, the U.S. and China had established a trade consultation mechanism in Geneva, followed by a framework agreement in London—now pending signature by both leaders. President Trump also hinted at an upcoming deal with India, as part of efforts to pass a spending bill before July 4. The U.S. administration later signaled flexibility in delaying reciprocal tariffs, which helped ease pressure on both the domestic and global stock markets as the new tariff deadline looms.
PMIs from the UK, Japan, the EU, China, and the United States; EU CPI and unemployment rate; U.S. non-farm payroll changes, unemployment rate, and jobless claims; and the OPEC meeting are key events to watch in the upcoming week.

 
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index sets new high for 2025 with moderate liquidity
The VN-Index rose 1.6%, marking its second consecutive weekly gain, although average liquidity decreased by 3%. Positive developments in global financial markets and optimism over tariffs have contributed to the market's upward momentum. Capital inflows continue to rotate actively into large-cap stocks that are building a base, opening up opportunities in sectors and stocks that expected to report strong Q2 earnings results.
- VIC and MSN replaced banking sector stocks as the primary drivers pushing the VN-Index past its short-term peak. These two stocks accounted for 80% of the 22-point weekly gain. However, money flow rotated quickly among sectors without a clear trend due to the lack of matching liquidity growth.
- 12 out of 18 sectors advanced, with real estate and food & beverage sectors gained between 4.7% and 6.8%, while the oil & gas sector, which surged last week, posted the sharpest decline of -4.26%.
- Foreign investors net bought USD 0.8 million, a reversal from the USD 5.4 million net selling recorded in the previous week. June's cumulative net selling reached USD 68 million, more than 50% lower than previous month's level.
Vietnam’s National Assembly concluded its session on June 27 after nearly two months of deliberation across two sittings. The legislature passed 50 resolutions on constitutional and legislative matters, including amendments to the 2013 Constitution, transitioning to a two-tier state administrative model, and approving eight amended laws aimed at improving the investment and business environment. This 9th session of the National Assembly is regarded as historic and pivotal, laying the groundwork for deep and wide-ranging reforms that will support Vietnam’s economic development in the new growth phase.
The VN-Index has established a new peak with moderate trading volume, while the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has intensified bill issuance (open market operations). Investors are advised to consider increasing exposure to stocks with positive Q2 outlooks, but should maintain balanced allocations in line with short-term risk appetite.