Week 15_Take advantage of the fluctuations to increase stock holding position

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Title	Week 15_Take advantage of the fluctuations to increase stock holding position_2404010
Report Type	Báo cáo tuần
Source	BSC
Bussiness	HOSTC
Detail	Date : 10/04/2024 Total pages : 15 Language : English File Type : .PDF FileSize : 1852 Kb Download: 17 Download
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Short Content	VIETNAM STOCK MARKET Selling pressure emerged in the mid-cap stock group during the last session of the week. VN-Index declined by 2.2% at the end of a three-week upward trend, retracing to the previous accumulation zone between 1,235 and 1,275 points. Foreign investors maintained a net selling position of 87 million USD, and the weakness in the US stock market accelerated the VN-Index’s short-term decline after it reached a recent peak. The decline was widespread, affecting 77% of stocks and 13 out of 18 sectors. While tourism, automobile, and auto parts stocks rose by over 2%, media, basic resources, financial services, and banking stocks declined by more than 2%. Key sectors no longer supported the index, impacting the flow of capital. After the short-term profit-taking phase, the market is expected to diverge based on the first quarter's financial results. Investors should continue to take advantage of market fluctuations to gradually increase their stock holdings. Based on the Q1 results and the 2024 forecast, the Ministry of Planning and Investment predicts two growth scenarios: (1) GDP reaching of 6%, in the last three months of the year, GDP is expected to increase by 6.12%, with Q2, Q3, and Q4 growing by 5.8%, 6.2%, and 6.2%, respectively and (2) GDP reaching 6.5%, in the last three months of the year are projected to see GDP growth of 6.7%, with Q2, Q3, and Q4 rising by 6.3%, 6.8%, and 7.1%, respectively. Economic activities are recovering across all three sectors: agriculture, industry, and services. However, the Ministry acknowledges new challenges both domestically and externally, including macroeconomic stability, inflation, and exchange rates. The Ministry also proposes five solutions to promote growth, along with continued efforts to improve mechanisms, policies, and administrative procedures. GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS Turn to the downside, the US stock indices have moved away from their record highs. Concerns over the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts led to a reversal in the US stock indices, resulting in an average decline of 1.8% for the week. The Dow Jones Index experienced a sharp decline, the most significant since March 2023, while 10-year bond yields reached new highs for the year. European stocks were also affected, with the EU600 index dropping by 0.7%. In Asia, there was divergence: Chinese and Malaysian stocks gained ground, while Japan and Hong Kong led the decline. The DXY index saw a slight decrease of 0.2%. Meanwhile, commodity prices surged, with crude oil rising by 4.5%, silver up by 5.6%, and other metals (copper, lead, zinc, nickel) increasing by over 4%. Gold also saw a rise of 1.2%. Looking ahead, the market awaits crucial information from the FOMC minutes and policy meetings by the ECB and Bank of Canada in the coming week. In an interview at Stanford University, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED) emphasized the need for time to assess inflation and refrained from disclosing the timing of interest rate cuts. Despite recent inflation exceeding forecasts, there is no definitive evidence that it is merely a temporary surge. The FED does not anticipate lowering interest rates until it is confident that inflation will sustainably decrease to the 2% target. Labor market data and inflation have not altered the overall growth narrative, and the labor market remains robust while inflation cools down toward the target, even though there have been periods of higher-than-expected inflation (February’s PCE rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month). Next week, the FOMC minutes will reveal the views of FED officials through the dot plot chart. The market is gradually losing confidence in the timing of the first interest rate cut, expected around June. INFORMATION FOR NEXT WEEK • The first quarter AGM and business performance of listed companies. • 8/4, European Investor Confidence Index; China's trade balance; Japanese consumer confidence. 10/4, CPI, new loans, Chinese M2 money supply; CPI and U.S. crude oil inventories; Interest rates and monetary policy reports of the Bank of Canada. 11/4, FOMC Minutes; Interest rates and ECB monetary policy minutes. 12/4, Index of industrial production, trade balance and UK GDP.