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Title Week 16_ Update on foreign capital flows and ETFs in the first quarter of 2024 and forecast for the second quarter_2404019
Report Type Báo cáo tuần
Source BSC
Bussiness HOSTC
Detail Date : 19/04/2024
Total pages : 18
Language : English
File Type : .PDF
FileSize : 2117 Kb
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Short Content

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Bank stocks supported the index in the last trading session of the week.
VN-Index rebounded by 1.7% after a week of decline and returned to the upper channel of the accumulation zone between 1,235 and 1,275 points. Bank stocks were the focal point driving the index’s recovery, with 5 banking stocks (BID, CTG, TCB, MBB, LPB) contributing 62% of the weekly gains for the VN-Index. The market gained ground amidst uncertainty, as only 42% of the sectors and 6 out of 18 industries saw positive movement, accompanied by low liquidity. While the Tourism and Entertainment and Retail sectors rose by over 1%, 8 other sectors experienced declines of more than 2% in the small and medium scale. Additionally, international information and Q1 financial results continued to support the market. However, as prices approach resistance levels with low liquidity, after two weeks of advising cautious buying, we recommend investors closely monitor developments before increasing their investment allocation.
Following the assessment of maintaining Vietnam’s GDP forecast at 6% and keeping interest rates unchanged by HSBC last week, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also maintains a growth projection of 6%, despite prolonged uncertainties from external factors. Factors such as foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, trade surplus, consumer recovery, and robust fiscal policies are considered key drivers for growth in 2024. Various organizations continue to hold a positive outlook on Vietnam’s economic prospects. Additionally, according to Fiinpro’s update, as of April 12th, 8 companies have reported their financial results with a net profit growth of 47% compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by MBS stocks. The upcoming season of financial disclosures is expected to be lively as many companies reveal positive financial results during their annual general meetings, providing short-term support to the stock market.
 
GLOBAL STOCK MARKET
Strong fluctuations during the week, US stock indexes remained stable
After a sharp decline due to Consumer Price Index (CPI) information, U.S. stock indices swiftly rebounded upon receiving the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, which were lower than expected. The Nasdaq index reached a record high during the session on April 11th, while other indices narrowed their losses. The EU600 index rose by 0.5% after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at the possibility of further monetary policy easing. The Nikkei 225 continues to outperform, with a 1% increase, extending its year-on-year growth to 40%. The U.S. dollar remains strong, with the DXY rising by 1.5%, and 10-year U.S. bonds adding 0.2%. The commodity index dipped slightly by 0.2%, driven by a decline in oil prices (-2.2%) and HRC steel (-5.8%), while gold (+2.3%) and silver (+6%) showed resilience. Market dynamics are rapidly changing based on macroeconomic data released last week.
In March, U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) and 3.5% year-on-year (YoY), surpassing the forecasted figures of 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. This data also exceeded February’s 0.3%, indicating that inflation is accelerating. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) also increased by 0.1% compared to the forecast. Housing costs and energy were the main drivers of CPI growth, with energy rising by 1.1% and housing increasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. Food prices only saw a modest 0.1% MoM increase. Expectations of cooling housing costs were a central factor in mitigating inflation, but this has not materialized in Q1. The hotter-than-expected inflation has made Federal Reserve officials cautious about short-term monetary policy trends
 
NOTEABLE INFORMATION NEXT WEEK
• The first quarter AGM and business performance of listed companies.
• April 15, U.S. retail sales and manufacturing index; The IMF meets April 15-20. April 16, Industrial Production Index, Retail Sales, China GDP Unemployment Rate; UK unemployment rate; EU trade balance; Canadian CPI; U.S. Building Permits and Industrial Production Index. April 17, U.S., EU CPI and U.S. crude oil reserves. April 18, Australia, U.S. unemployment rate; EU Consumer Confidence Index. April 19, UK Retail Sales.