Title Week 17_Forecast of the number of buying/selling shares of ETFs related to VN30 and Vietnam Diamond index_20240423
Report Type Báo cáo tuần
Source BSC
Bussiness HOSTC
Detail Date : 23/04/2024
Total pages : 15
Language : English
File Type : .PDF
FileSize : 1801 Kb
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Short Content

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Negative news triggers a sell-off, a deep fall in the market
Negative international and domestic news engulfed VN-Index with a decline of 8% in just 4 trading sessions during the week. The stocks weakened quickly and spread throughout the market with 92% of stocks and 16 out of 18 sectors falling. Sectors with high beta and strong gains such as Financial Services, Chemicals, Real Estate and Construction & Materials fell over 7%. Negative sentiment in the face of many adverse news is the main reason why the market fell deeply during the week. As of April 19, 126/1666 companies listed on 3 exchanges announced business performance for the first quarter with LNST increasing by 25% yoy, of which 42.8% of enterprises grew negatively and 18.2% of revenue losses. This initial figure is quite positive and will somewhat support the market during the short-term bottom tracing.
According to MPI data, by the end of March 2024, about 32/657 trillion public investment capital has not been allocated in detail, of which the central budget is 9.5 trillion and the local budget is 22.5 trillion. The main reason is that projects start new construction, have not completed investment procedures according to regulations. In Q1 2024, public investment disbursement is quite positive when implementing nearly 90 trillion, equivalent to 13.7% of the Prime Minister's plan and higher than 10.3% yoy. However, the Minister of Planning and Investment raised new difficulties in licensing new sand mines, along with difficulties such as slow site clearance, untimely investment procedures, limited contractor capacity, ... will affect the speed of disbursement of public investment.

WORLD STOCK MARKET
Global stocks sold off sharply after news of Iran explosion
Down five straight sessions as of April 18, the S&P 500 has had a long losing streak since October 2023. The US CK index has an average decline of 2.5% due to concerns about Fed monetary policy in the face of inflation and the risk of an escalating conflict with an explosion in Iran. The bearish wave also spread in European and Asian markets. The EU600 and Nikkei 225 indices fell 1.9% and 5.8%, respectively. China's stock market rarely rallied when receiving positive news of GDP growth. DXY rose slightly by 0.03% and bond futures by 0.07%. The commodity index rebounded 0.1%, led by precious metals. Oil prices fell 2.3% despite rising conflicts in the Middle East.
GDP for Q1 in China grew by 5.3%, surpassing the predicted 4.6% and Q4 2023's 5.2% Unemployment rate decreased to 5.2%, ending a 3-month consecutive increase, but industrial production and retail sales in March were lower than expected, indicating challenges in achieving the 5% growth target for 2024 In the US and EU, monetary policy messages are also becoming clearer. The ECB president said that it is possible to cut interest rates if there is no more big shock, while the Fed chairman said that the Fed is not confident enough to reduce interest rates and needs a long time to achieve this confidence. The health of 2 different economies may lead to a phase difference in monetary policy after many meetings to keep interest rates unchanged.
 
NEXT WEEK'S NOTABLE NEWS
• First quarter AGM and business performance of listed companies.
• April 22, Chinese 1- and 5-year interest rates; EU consumer confidence index. 23/4, UK, EU and US manufacturing and services PMI. 24/4, Australian CPI; Canadian Retail Sales; U.S. Crude Oil Reserves. April 25, Jobless claims, first-quarter GDP and U.S. trade balance. April 26, CPI, interest rate minutes of Japanese monetary policy; PCE and U.S. consumer confidence index.